ALP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
Bullwinkel covers parts of eastern Perth and regional areas immediately to the east. The electorate stretches from Greenmount and Forrestfield out to Grass Valley and Beverley.
Bullwinkel covers the Beverley, Kalamunda, Mundaring, Northam, Toodyay and York council areas, and parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Swan council areas.
Redistribution
Bullwinkel is a new seat, taking in parts of Burt, Canning, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor and Swan. Almost half of the population of Bullwinkel was previously in Hasluck, while another 22% were in Swan.
History
Bullwinkel is a new electorate created as a marginal Labor seat, primarily taking areas from the seat of Hasluck. Hasluck had alternated between Labor and Liberal from 2001 to 2010, before being held by Ken Wyatt for four terms from 2010 to 2022. Labor’s Tania Lawrence won the seat in 2022 amidst a huge swing to Labor across Western Australia.
The areas now contained in Bullwinkel have tended to hew closely to the statewide two-party-preferred vote in Western Australia, although it often leans slightly towards the Liberal Party.
Assessment
Bullwinkel is a very marginal seat, even with the very strong Labor performance in Western Australia. Labor doesn’t have a sitting MP to defend the seat, so there is a good chance the seat will swing back to the Liberal Party and they could win here.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 34.4 |
| Liberal | 32.5 |
| Greens | 10.7 |
| Informal | 5.5 |
| One Nation | 4.1 |
| United Australia | 2.7 |
| Western Australia Party | 2.5 |
| Independent | 1.7 |
| Federation Party | 1.6 |
| Nationals | 1.3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.1 |
| Australian Christians | 1.0 |
| Animal Justice | 0.6 |
| Great Australian Party | 0.4 |
| Informed Medical Options | 0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 53.3 |
| Liberal | 46.7 |
Booths in Bullwinkel have been split into four parts. The sparsely populated east has been grouped together. The urban booths in the Perth area have been split into north-west, south-west and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the western areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 55.7% in the north-west. The Liberal Party polled 53.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in the east to 14.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.3 | 55.3 | 16,811 | 17.6 |
| North-West | 13.7 | 55.7 | 14,881 | 15.6 |
| South-West | 14.1 | 53.5 | 6,034 | 6.3 |
| East | 8.7 | 46.1 | 5,071 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 52.8 | 31,503 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 52.5 | 21,042 | 22.1 |
Election results in Bullwinkel at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
I’m sorry, are we actually going by a poll that says Nats are 22% and Labor are 15% here? Yeah, no.
@scart ive got libs winning Bullwinkel, Tangey and Curtin. Pearce and Hasluck will be interesting to watch. The Wa election was fought on state matters like the economy which is going well thanks to mining and gas. Labors Nature Positive laws federally as well as the teals and greens plans to cancel coal and gas projects wil harm labor federally. Labor cant rely on Roger Cook to be the rockstar help McGowan was. Also the libs choice of candidate in tangey will help along with the fact the Scomo and his unpoplarity ad anti wa vibe are gone. voters will be judging albo on his record not roger cook
@adda simply reporting the results as i read them
Tony Barry during ABC’s WA state election night coverage said he is only putting Bullwinkel as a Liberal gain. He didn’t seem too certain about the Liberals winning Tangney and Pearce.
Looking at Pollbludger projected figures here, which are gonna wobble around a bit, plus a few of my own rubbery preference estimates.
In Kalamunda, Labor turned 33.5% primary into 49.6% 2pp, a gain of 16.1%. The Greens are on 13.6%, so maybe 11% came from them (assuming an 80/20 split to Labor). There’s another 5% of 2pp gain to explain. It certainly didn’t come from the minor right (One Nation / Christians / Shooters), there’d be some from Legalise Cannabis but they only got about 3% (let’s say 2% from them), so that leaves about 3% which must have came from the Nats. That’s a third of their prefs going to Labor! (WA Nats prefs have a habit of leaking to Labor like this.)
Repeat that at the federal election, and depending on what Davies ends up polling, that could be an extra 2-3% of 2pp for Labor that doesn’t appear to make sense to east coast eyes, and it could end up making the difference.
@bird the minor right would still leak preferences to labor one nation preferences arent as strong to libs as greens are to labor and it varies from election to election. usually round 65-70% to libs though