ALP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
Bullwinkel covers parts of eastern Perth and regional areas immediately to the east. The electorate stretches from Greenmount and Forrestfield out to Grass Valley and Beverley.
Bullwinkel covers the Beverley, Kalamunda, Mundaring, Northam, Toodyay and York council areas, and parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Swan council areas.
Redistribution
Bullwinkel is a new seat, taking in parts of Burt, Canning, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor and Swan. Almost half of the population of Bullwinkel was previously in Hasluck, while another 22% were in Swan.
History
Bullwinkel is a new electorate created as a marginal Labor seat, primarily taking areas from the seat of Hasluck. Hasluck had alternated between Labor and Liberal from 2001 to 2010, before being held by Ken Wyatt for four terms from 2010 to 2022. Labor’s Tania Lawrence won the seat in 2022 amidst a huge swing to Labor across Western Australia.
The areas now contained in Bullwinkel have tended to hew closely to the statewide two-party-preferred vote in Western Australia, although it often leans slightly towards the Liberal Party.
Assessment
Bullwinkel is a very marginal seat, even with the very strong Labor performance in Western Australia. Labor doesn’t have a sitting MP to defend the seat, so there is a good chance the seat will swing back to the Liberal Party and they could win here.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 34.4 |
| Liberal | 32.5 |
| Greens | 10.7 |
| Informal | 5.5 |
| One Nation | 4.1 |
| United Australia | 2.7 |
| Western Australia Party | 2.5 |
| Independent | 1.7 |
| Federation Party | 1.6 |
| Nationals | 1.3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.1 |
| Australian Christians | 1.0 |
| Animal Justice | 0.6 |
| Great Australian Party | 0.4 |
| Informed Medical Options | 0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 53.3 |
| Liberal | 46.7 |
Booths in Bullwinkel have been split into four parts. The sparsely populated east has been grouped together. The urban booths in the Perth area have been split into north-west, south-west and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the western areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 55.7% in the north-west. The Liberal Party polled 53.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in the east to 14.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.3 | 55.3 | 16,811 | 17.6 |
| North-West | 13.7 | 55.7 | 14,881 | 15.6 |
| South-West | 14.1 | 53.5 | 6,034 | 6.3 |
| East | 8.7 | 46.1 | 5,071 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 52.8 | 31,503 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 52.5 | 21,042 | 22.1 |
Election results in Bullwinkel at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@bird and additional 2 senators per state would be an increase of 24 lower house mps. It would be 8 for NSW 6 for Vic 5 for Qld 3 for WA and 2 for SA
If we use the median result of normal 2019 and the over inflated 2022 result. We get a marginal Liberal seat. So by that the Liberals should win here. Just.
Regarding Mia Davies’s chances, I’d say they are slim. As covered before, most of Bullwinkel’s population is outside her state electorate of Central Wheatbelt. There is a narrow pathway however and it depends on preferences and the Labor vote.
The last WA National in federal parliament was Tony Crook. He came second on primaries in 2010 but preferences helped him defeat the Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey. As a WA National, he was a crossbencher rather than part of the Coalition.
I reckon Labor and the Greens direct preferences to the Nationals ahead of the Liberals to minimise the growth of the Coalition party room. It would be interesting to see how minor right-wing parties direct preferences. Davies would only win if she beats Labor on the 3PP count and gets most preferences. I doubt she will come first on primaries.
@vitante no way labor misses out on the 2pp here
Mia Davies is apparently aspiring to be the deputy Prime Minister. might be hard to achieve given the Nats in WA have no standing with the Liberal Party and while she may be able to sit with the Nationals she wont be able to lead them(???) or become deputy PM
What’s the old saying John? If you don’t back yourself, no-one else will!
Getting ahead of herself perhaps – needs to get elected first considering she is unlikely to crack more than a 15% primary.
@Huxley exactly why do you think all the labor mps are saying we are gonna be reelected in majority